Goldman Sachs
Lead underwriter on SpaceX's IPO, now under a Korean regulatory probe after cutting broker Mirae Asset's expected allocation to zero. Its research desk sees $1 trillion of AI capex and warns of $120 oil.
Goldman Sachs leads SpaceX's IPO and is fielding the fallout: its cut of Korean broker Mirae Asset's expected allocation to zero prompted an investigation by Korea's Financial Supervisory Service, and Korean asset managers are now shunning pre-listing allocations in Anthropic's upcoming IPO. Its analysts also project SpaceX's AI-related revenue could reach $322 billion by 2030 as the company races to meet its Google compute deadline.
The research desk is working both sides of the AI boom. It projects global AI capital spending above $1 trillion this year, sees durable multi-year semiconductor demand, argues the boom broadens rather than erodes software moats, and names Palantir Technologies a high-quality opportunity. Yet it warns tech giants could be left holding depreciating assets if demand for large language models falls short.
The commodities team warns oil could top $120 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockage drive diesel to record highs, and reports tightening sugar inventories as crop failures and high oil prices pull sugarcane into ethanol. Equity analyst Neil Mehta backs dividend payers Devon Energy, Expand Energy, HF Sinclair and ConocoPhillips as undervalued.
The macro calls skew hawkish. Goldman scrapped its December 2026 Fed cut and now expects two quarter-point cuts in June and December 2027, and sees a 20% chance of a hike instead. It deems the CAC 40 Europe's weakest major large-cap index for three straight years and puts 68% odds on Marine Le Pen winning France's 2027 presidency.
Retail analyst Scott Feiler warns consumer stocks are badly lagging, with the group down 6.5% in August and hedge fund exposure to retail at multi-year lows on the bank's prime brokerage data, a signal UBS now cites. Goldman's Communacopia conference drew its own headlines, hosting Shift4's $300 million acquisition announcement and Intuit's strategic reset.
On their plate
Goldman serves as lead underwriter on the SpaceX IPO. Its decision to cut Korean broker Mirae Asset's expected allocation to zero has prompted an investigation by Korea's Financial Supervisory Service, and Korean asset managers are now shunning pre-listing allocations in Anthropic's upcoming IPO.
Goldman projects global AI capital spending will top $1 trillion in 2026, sees durable multi-year demand for semiconductors, argues the boom broadens rather than erodes enterprise software moats, and names Palantir Technologies a high-quality opportunity. It also projects SpaceX's AI-related revenue could reach $322 billion by 2030 as the company races to meet its Google compute deadline. At the same time, its research warns on AI-cycle excesses, flagging the risk that tech giants are left with depreciating assets if demand for large language models falls short.
Goldman's commodities desk warns oil prices could top $120 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockage drive diesel to record highs. It also reports tightening global sugar inventories as crop failures and high oil prices divert sugarcane into ethanol. Equity analyst Neil Mehta is screening dividend-paying energy stocks for value, backing Devon Energy, Expand Energy, HF Sinclair and ConocoPhillips even after the sector's big run.
Goldman has pushed its Fed rate-cut forecast to 2027, removing a December 2026 cut and now expecting two quarter-point cuts in June and December 2027, with a 20% probability of a hike, citing resilient activity and May job growth. Derivatives strategist Brian Garrett reports traders piling into call options even as the market prices roughly a 60% probability of a September hike, while retail analyst Scott Feiler warns consumer stocks are badly underperforming, with the group down 6.5% in August and hedge fund exposure to US retail at multi-year lows on Goldman's prime brokerage data, a figure UBS now cites. The desk is also bearish on France, calling the CAC 40 Europe's weakest major large-cap index for three straight years and putting 68% probability on Marine Le Pen winning the 2027 presidential election.
Goldman hosted its Communacopia + Technology Conference in September 2026, a marquee investor event drawing top-tier corporate disclosures. Shift4 Payments chose the conference to announce its $300 million account-to-account platform acquisition, and Intuit's CFO unveiled a strategic reset and J curve growth plan there the same day.
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