Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Lula runs statistically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in simulated runoffs ahead of the October 4 vote: one poll puts him behind 46.8 to 47.2 percent, another ahead 47 to 46, his first-round lead is narrower than in August, and no candidate is on course to avoid an October 25 runoff. He dismissed the tightening with 'polls don't shake me' as his Workers' Party called for campaign adjustments after a 51 percent disapproval rating. Markets lean the other way: Polymarket prices Bolsonaro at 57 percent to Lula's 42, and half of surveyed investors expect Brazilian equities to jump at least 20 percent by year-end on a Bolsonaro win.

Lula accused U.S. President Trump of attempting to colonize Brazil and interfere in the October 4 election, alleging in ads and social posts that Trump backs Flávio Bolsonaro to advance U.S. interests; the State Department dismissed the meddling claim as a 'baseless lie.' He frames U.S. tariffs and diplomatic pressure as an attack on Brazilian democracy, and the rift has a security edge: Washington withheld visas for Brazilian federal police agents, Brazil retaliated in kind, and the Trump administration has ignored his proposal for joint action against drug-gang finances and weapons. At the General Assembly he demanded an offensive against climate denialism, contrasting himself with Trump, who kept calling climate change a hoax.

Lula rejected a Trump administration proposal seeking priority U.S. access to Brazil's critical minerals, consigning it to the 'dead files' because it is unacceptable for another country to hold priority over Brazilian mineral wealth. He signed a law on September 17 establishing the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals, after Congress passed his bill limiting raw exports with 5 billion reais in tax credits, a 2 billion reais mining guarantee fund and a 10-year exploration permit cap. He pitches it as quality jobs and global investment at home and less reliance on China for niobium, nickel and rare earths, warning that people abroad are eyeing Brazil's resources while some at home would hand everything over on a silver platter.

The corruption scandal around Justice Alexandre de Moraes, over intercepted messages with detained Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro, has landed on Lula's plate weeks before the vote. He has called for a comprehensive investigation without shielding, urged a formal probe into the justice's conduct to distance his administration, demanded transparency in the Banco Master investigations and challenged the removal of Federal Police chief Andrei Rodrigues, while the court postponed any probe decision until after October 4. Flávio Bolsonaro is working to tie the two men together, telling voters 'to vote for Lula is to vote for Alexandre de Moraes,' while corruption investigations involving Lula's son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, keep resurfacing as a campaign liability.

With oil above $101 a barrel amid the Middle East conflict, Lula signed a decree and provisional measure cutting federal taxes on gasoline by 0.63 real per liter and on ethanol by 0.19 real, saying he wants to prevent the price of the Iran war from reaching Brazilians' pockets. His campaign faces headwinds from a weakening economy even as inflation cooled to 4.22 percent in August, and the central bank's fifth consecutive cut, to 13.75 percent on September 16, aligns with his economic goals while the bank warns of 'higher than usual' inflation risks from oil spikes tied to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. His flagship amendment cutting the workweek from six days to five without reducing pay stalled in the Senate, where his government leader withheld the floor vote rather than risk rejection; Lula blamed opposition led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, saying 'yesterday, Brazil once again saw who is who in Congress.'