Greg Abbott
Seeking a fourth term, Abbott trails Gina Hinojosa narrowly in the polls and declined repeated debates, while pivoting against AI data centers and renewing his border emergency for a 69th time.
Greg Abbott enters the final stretch of his reelection race in a dead heat, with the University of Texas poll released October 13 putting Democrat Gina Hinojosa ahead 49 to 48 inside the margin of error. His campaign cash has fallen from $100 million to $18 million, while JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association put $2 million behind Hinojosa. He has declined repeated debate requests ahead of the November 3 election, and she says he is trying to hide from his record.
His defining move is a turn against the AI data center industry he once praised. After halting new approvals in August pending a statewide audit of the industry's grid and water impact, he said on October 13 that he will have the Legislature codify the crackdown next year: facilities would fund their own electrical infrastructure, cool water-efficiently, report consumption, limit noise and lose their sales tax breaks. He directed the state water board to notify prosecutors of facilities that failed to disclose water usage — only about 30 percent of 329 surveyed facilities reported theirs last year. Hinojosa calls it just words and wants a moratorium, and the stance splits him from Trump and Ted Cruz, who warn overregulating AI could help China.
Beyond data centers, he renewed his border security disaster proclamation for a 69th time on October 15, insisting the border must be secured forever even as federal data shows crossings at historic lows. He has declared a state disaster over record fuel prices after Texas's priciest-ever September at the pump. Hinojosa also targets his voucher program, vowing to end what she calls a scam. Leaked audio caught Attorney General Ken Paxton telling donors that Abbott is struggling in the race. On the stump, he vows to fully ban sharia law in Texas.
On their plate
The University of Texas poll released October 13 puts Hinojosa ahead 49 to 48, inside the margin of error, after an NYT/Siena survey showed her narrowly ahead as national Democrats target the governorship. His campaign cash has fallen from $100 million at launch to $18 million by the end of September, while Hinojosa drew $1 million each from JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association — the group's first investment in a Texas governor's race. He has declined repeated debate requests ahead of the November 3 election, a shift from his own history of debating in gubernatorial races, and she says he is trying to hide from his record. His counterpitch includes a vow to fully ban sharia law in Texas, while her populist campaign against his data center and voucher policies courts rural conservatives and disaffected MAGA voters.
Abbott has backtracked from his earlier praise of the AI data center industry, citing safety and quality-of-life concerns as opposition to the facilities became a defining midterm issue, with his audit push coming after Hinojosa accused him of being too sympathetic to the industry. He halted new project approvals in August pending a statewide audit of the industry's impact on the power grid and natural resources, paused grid interconnections to shield residential ratepayers from rising costs, and on October 13 announced he will have the Legislature codify the restrictions into law next year: facilities must fund their own electrical infrastructure, use water-efficient cooling, report resource consumption and limit noise, and the industry loses its sales tax breaks. He directed the Texas Water Development Board to notify local prosecutors of facilities that failed to disclose water usage — only about 30 percent of 329 surveyed facilities reported theirs last year. Hinojosa dismisses the moves as 'just words' from the governor who invited the industry into Texas with the richest tax breaks in the country, and demands a formal moratorium, while Trump and Cruz warn that overregulating AI could benefit China against Abbott's position that Texas can restrict the facilities without undermining national competitiveness.
Abbott renewed his border security disaster proclamation for the 69th time since 2021 on October 15, keeping the emergency powers that let him shift state funds and award no-bid contracts. He insists the border must be secured 'forever,' even as federal data shows crossings at historic lows.
Abbott declared a state disaster over record fuel prices as Texas logged its most expensive September at the pump ever. The statewide average hit $3.94 for regular unleaded and a record $5.97 for diesel, driven by elevated crude prices and volatility in the Strait of Hormuz.
His Education Freedom Accounts program, enacted in 2025 after he primaried Republican legislators who opposed the measure with backing from $12 million in Jeff Yass money, is now a central target of Hinojosa's campaign, which vows to 'end the voucher scam' amid projections of $227 million in public school losses this year. The $1 billion program is being implemented by his appointee, interim comptroller Don Huffines, whose office Democrat Sarah Eckhardt is campaigning to win on a platform of auditing the vouchers.
Key relationships
His Democratic challenger, running even or slightly ahead in the polls and building her campaign on his data center record, voucher program and refusal to debate.
A fellow Republican whose private doubts about the governor's campaign surfaced in leaked audio.
An ally on his law-and-order agenda who nonetheless publicly split with him on data centers.
His appointee as interim comptroller, now running implementation of the $1 billion voucher program.
A fellow Republican publicly split from Abbott on data centers: Cruz warns that overregulating AI could benefit China, while Abbott presses restrictions he says won't undermine national competitiveness.
