The Bill That Broke the Base

He promised to cut prices in half.

We intend to slash prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months. — Donald Trump

Electricity prices instead rose nearly 10% ^[1]. That gap is not a broken promise in the ordinary sense — a politician overreaching. It is the signature of a strategy working against itself. In June, the Federal Reserve did something it rarely does: it named the administration's own policy as the country's primary inflation driver. Its minutes and semi-annual Monetary Policy Report point at two things — the tariffs and the AI infrastructure buildout — and trace headline PCE from 2.4% in February to 4.1% in May ^[2]. A central bank does not usually hand a president a causal chain from his own toolkit to the price of groceries. This one did. The transmissions are fast and brutal. Residential electricity is up 33% over five years, with data-center developers competing for the same grid capacity as households ^[3]. RAM prices have spiked 290%, and producer prices for electronic components rose a record 27% ^[4]. Apple raised Mac and iPad prices by $100 to $500 ^[5]. And the steel and aluminum tariffs, raised to 50% to protect domestic supply, are instead pushing automaker costs up and vehicle prices with them ^[6]. Oil has swung the other way since spring ^[7]. But the Fed's naming of tariffs and the buildout — not crude — as the primary drivers says those pressures do not retreat with the price of oil. Now the political bill. Trump's approval sits at 33%, a record low ^[8]. For the first time in a decade, Americans say Democrats would handle the economy better ^[8]. Democrats lead on cost of living 36 to 28 ^[9]. And Republican pollsters are warning that roughly 20% of their own reliable voters may stay home or defect in November, driven by inflation and gas prices ^[10]. Nathan Nascimento of Americans for Prosperity Action put a word on the attrition number.

This is a scary number — Nathan Nascimento

Ron Johnson's prescription was blunter.

We have a high-propensity base problem — Nathan Nascimento

The loop closes. The resource sovereignty toolkit was built to close a physical gap with China, and it is too slow to do that. But its instruments are not neutral while they wait. A tariff makes imports expensive; a buildout consumes power. That is not a malfunction — it is the normal operation of the tools — and it is what generated the inflation now eating the political foundation the strategy needs to survive. The pollster staring at the attrition number is looking at the bill for a strategy that priced out its own voters.