India Coffee Production Misses Forecast Due to Dry Spells

India's coffee production for the year ending March is expected to reach approximately 380,000 metric tons, falling short of the 400,000-ton forecast previously issued by the Coffee Board. M.J. Dinesh, chairman of the state-run agency, attributed the more than 5% shortfall to prolonged dry spells and below-normal rains.

Because India exports roughly 70% of its output, primarily robusta beans, the smaller harvest is expected to tighten export supplies and reduce the country's price competitiveness in global markets. India currently ranks as the third-largest coffee producer in Asia.

While the outlook for the 2027-28 crop remains uncertain and dependent on critical winter rainfall, global supplies are expected to improve. Strong exports from Brazil and Vietnam are projected to rebuild global inventories, a trend noted by Citi Research, which subsequently lowered its price forecasts for arabica coffee.