China Expected to Hold Lending Rates Unchanged

Market participants expect the People's Bank of China to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 17th consecutive month during its review on Tuesday. A Reuters survey of 22 participants shows a consensus that the one-year loan prime rate will remain at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%.

This expected stability follows third-quarter GDP data that exceeded expectations. Strong exports helped the economy offset weak domestic consumer spending, leading to projections that the Government of China will meet its 2026 growth target of 4.5%-5.0% without additional stimulus. Analysts have warned that this reliance on external drivers creates structural imbalances.

Despite the broader growth figures, the housing market remains in a slump that has lasted over three years, with new home prices continuing to fall in September. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, is scheduled to speak at a financial forum in Beijing regarding the country's monetary path.