Moody's Raises Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook to Positive

Moody's Ratings raised its economic outlook for sub-Saharan African countries to positive on October 7, 2026. The agency cited strong commodity prices, improved access to financing, and successful reforms to combat inflationary pressures as the primary drivers for the upgrade.

Economies in the region are expected to grow by a weighted average of 4.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Total government debt is projected to fall from 62.4% of GDP in 2025 to 56.6% by 2027. While Zambia and Ethiopia are expected to see the most significant debt reductions, Gabon and Botswana are forecasted to experience the sharpest increases.

Despite the upgrade, the agency warned that climate change, regional security threats, and heavy debt repayment burdens remain critical vulnerabilities. Kenya and Zambia are projected to spend approximately 35% of their government revenue on interest payments in 2027. Of the 25 rated countries in the region, eight now hold positive outlooks, while Botswana and Mauritius remain the only investment-grade borrowers.