Analysts Forecast Oil Surge to $200 Amid Hormuz Closure

Energy market specialists and financial institutions warn that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from a war in Iran that began in February 2026, could drive Brent crude oil prices to unprecedented levels. While a Bloomberg Intelligence survey of 126 asset managers initially projected prices between $81 and $100 per barrel, subsequent reports suggest far more severe outcomes. Citi forecasts a base case of $120 per barrel and a bull case of $150, while Wood Mackenzie warns prices could hit $200 if the waterway remains closed through 2026.

The disruption has already curtailed over 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and affected 20% of global LNG supplies. Citi analysts note that neither the United States nor the Iranian regime faces sufficient pressure to force a diplomatic breakthrough, making de-escalation unlikely before July. Such a prolonged crisis could increase global oil spending by $5 trillion to $6 trillion, potentially causing a 0.4% contraction of the global economy.

To mitigate these risks, regional powers are diversifying export routes. Saudi Arabia has shifted volumes to Red Sea pipelines, and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is constructing a second main pipeline to the Port of Fujairah to double its export capacity. Experts suggest these disruptions may accelerate the transition to alternative energy in Asia and Europe while increasing demand for U.S. LNG exporters.