Democratic Challenger Amanda Janoo Leads Governor Phil Scott in Poll
Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo leads incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott 49% to 43% in a new University of New Hampshire poll ahead of the November 3 election.
A new Green Mountain State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo leading incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott 49% to 43%. While the result is characterized as a statistical tie due to the margin of error, it represents a 21-point swing from a July poll in which Scott led by 15 points.
Governor Scott's approval rating has declined to 47%, down from 67% at the end of the pandemic and 61% in October 2025. Analysts attribute the shift to local affordability issues and national enthusiasm to vote against the policies of President Donald Trump. Other polling data shows Democrat Molly Gray leading incumbent Lieutenant Governor John Rodgers 54% to 35%, while U.S. Rep. Becca Balint holds a 35-point lead over Republican Gerald Malloy.
Campaign manager Dustin Degree dismissed the findings as statistical malpractice, arguing the survey over-represented Democrats. Andrew Smith, executive director of the UNH Survey Center, defended the methodology as consistent with major polling firms. Janoo's campaign stated the results reflect sentiment on the ground every day.
