Nigeria Headline Inflation Falls to 15.43% Amid Food Price Surge

The National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria reported that headline inflation fell to 15.43% in July 2026, down from 15.91% in June. This second consecutive month of moderation followed a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index to a 2024 base year. Core inflation, which excludes energy and farm produce, also declined to 14.97%.

Despite the overall decline, food inflation accelerated for the sixth straight month, reaching 20.31% year-on-year and 5.56% month-on-month. The surge was driven by price hikes for staples including rice, beef, tomatoes, and onions. Regional disparities remained stark, with Adamawa State recording the highest year-on-year inflation at 33.03% and the highest food inflation at 51.36%, while Nasarawa State recorded the lowest at 7.86%.

Analysts attribute the headline slowdown to a more stable foreign-exchange market and tight monetary policy. In response to the economic climate, the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its benchmark interest rate at 26.50% during its July meeting. Cowry Assets Management Limited projected that headline inflation would further decelerate to 14.82% in August.

However, the official data faced significant criticism. Former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria Okechukwu Unegbu claimed actual inflation remains between 35% and 40%, while Arise Television anchor Rufai Oseni characterized the reported decline as a "charade of deceit." Other experts warned that disinflation should not be mistaken for a fall in the cost of living, noting that supply-side pressures and insecurity on farms continue to threaten household welfare.