National Bank of Kazakhstan Cuts Base Interest Rate to 15.75%

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the country's base interest rate from 16.25% to 15.75% per annum on October 23, 2026. The decision by the bank's Monetary Policy Committee follows a 12-month downward trend in annual inflation, which fell to 9.3% in September 2026. This decline was supported by a moderately tight monetary policy and favorable exchange rate dynamics for the tenge.

Economic growth in Kazakhstan reached 4.2% between January and September 2026, driven primarily by non-resource sectors including manufacturing, construction, and transportation. In response to these trends, the bank lowered its inflation forecasts to 9.5% for the end of 2026 and 8.3% for 2027, with a long-term target of 5.0% by 2028.

Despite the rate cut, the bank warned that risks remain tilted to the upside. These risks include fiscal expansion, tightening global financial conditions, and high global prices for food and energy. The National Bank indicated that the likelihood of further interest rate adjustments before the end of 2026 remains low.