Iran Faces Economic Collapse and Imminent Mass Protests

The Supreme National Security Council of Iran convened an emergency meeting on April 28 to address a critical economic collapse and the looming threat of mass public protests. Chaired by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the council warned that protests are inevitable, with instability driven by a U.S. naval blockade initiated on April 13. Officials estimate the economy cannot withstand the blockade for more than six to eight weeks, predicting a breaking point by late May or early June.

Industrial devastation has been compounded by thousands of airstrikes from the United States and Israel, which damaged over 23,000 factories, including petrochemical complexes and steelworks. These strikes and the blockade have caused a near-total shutdown of oil and steel production, freezing financial markets and triggering the loss of two million jobs. Deputy Work and Social Security Minister Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani stated that industrial damage cost one million jobs directly, while another million were lost through spillover effects. The UNDP warns that up to 4.1 million additional people could fall into poverty.

Security officials expressed specific alarm over potential demonstrations on May 1 and the possibility of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi calling for protests, which the regime views as an existential threat. In response to the crisis, the Iranian government has attributed the hardship to an "unjust war" and plans to expand monthly vouchers for the poor, while the Tehran Chamber of Commerce has urged companies to prioritize job preservation.