China Carbon Emissions Projected to Peak by 2029

An interim report released during the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development general meeting in Beijing projects that China will see its carbon dioxide emissions peak between 2027 and 2029. The report identifies the period from 2025 to 2035 as a critical window for the country to transition toward sustained reductions, with a target decline of more than 10% from the peak by 2035.

While nonfossil fuel energy shares reached 19.8% in 2024 and carbon emission intensity dropped 51% compared to 2005 levels, coal remains a dominant energy source, accounting for 53.2% of total consumption. The report warns that energy demand is expected to increase by over 30% during the 15th Five-Year Plan from 2026 to 2030, which will create significant challenges for power system modernization and grid integration.

Experts at the meeting recommended a shift toward deep green development and urged the government to make the green transition a primary theme of the next Five-Year Plan to ensure carbon neutrality is achieved before 2060. Former special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua emphasized the necessity of multilateralism and cooperation to support developing countries during this transition.