McKinsey Report Outlines Plans to Offset Hormuz Oil Disruptions
McKinsey Global Institute reports that energy security measures could offset up to 70% of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz by 2030.
The McKinsey Global Institute released a report stating that energy security measures currently underway or under discussion could offset between 35% and 70% of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz by 2030 during a major disruption. The report identifies the construction of bypass pipelines as the largest potential offset, alongside accelerated electrification, expanded clean energy, increased inventories, and the development of alternative oil and gas supplies.
While the current energy system absorbed much of the disruption from a 2026 crisis through trade flow changes and temporary buffers, the institute warns that these existing buffers are now under strain. The report argues that long-term energy security depends on creating layers of optionality and diversification rather than relying on a single solution.
McKinsey emphasizes that these estimates are not forecasts and depend entirely on actual implementation. The organization notes that the energy system has proven more resilient than expected, but warns that the necessary implementation of these security levers requires significant time and money.
