Goldman Sachs Warns Diesel Export Ban Would Spike Gasoline Prices

Analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that a proposed 90-day ban on United States diesel fuel exports, potentially starting in early October, would create volatile shifts in global and domestic fuel markets. The bank estimates that an export ban would initially lower domestic retail diesel prices by approximately $0.25 per gallon weekly as inventories build.

This downward trend would likely reverse once storage capacity is reached, theoretically within 9 to 10 weeks. Because diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are produced together, refiners may cut production to protect margins once storage is full, which would push U.S. retail gasoline prices up by about $0.30 per gallon per week.

Internationally, the bank expects European wholesale diesel prices to rise by roughly $3 per barrel weekly, although strategic reserves and emergency inventory releases could mitigate half of that increase. Once any restrictions are lifted, Goldman Sachs predicts U.S. diesel prices would reconnect with international markets, leading to a rebound in domestic costs while global refined-product prices remain elevated due to temporary refinery output cuts.