Goldman Sachs Forecasts AI May Displace 9% of Workers

Goldman Sachs released research on Thursday analyzing the potential for artificial intelligence to displace workers based on historical data regarding technology-driven labor shifts. The investment bank projects that a 15% productivity increase driven by AI could temporarily displace approximately 9% of workers during the transition period.

By examining historical trends, the bank found that every 1% increase in labor productivity typically causes a temporary 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. These disruptions generally fade within two years.

The research suggests that labor disruption remains limited during healthy economic periods but accelerates during slowdowns. Goldman Sachs warns that AI-related labor disruptions could amplify broader business cycles, though the transition should remain manageable if overall economic activity stays healthy.