EIA Raises 2027 U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Price Forecasts

The Energy Information Administration raised its 2027 retail gasoline and diesel price forecasts on November 10, citing persistent supply constraints in global petroleum product markets. The agency now projects that retail diesel will average $5.03 per gallon, representing a 12% increase from its previous forecast, while gasoline is expected to average $3.73 per gallon, a 5% increase.

Although these prices are expected to remain lower than 2026 levels, the agency anticipates that tight supply will support wider refinery margins and elevated U.S. refinery operations through 2027. This outlook follows an October warning from the International Energy Agency regarding strained diesel markets.

In response to those market conditions, the International Energy Agency Governing Board decided on October 15 to accelerate the release of over 20 million barrels of diesel stocks to mitigate market tightness. Supply pressures have been further exacerbated by attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, which contributed to rising crude prices.