Copper Industry Needs $332 Billion to Avoid 2028 Shortage
BloombergNEF and Goldman Sachs warn of a structural copper supply deficit driven by declining ore grades and long mine lead times.
The global copper industry faces a severe structural supply constraint that could hinder the energy transition, according to reports from BloombergNEF and Goldman Sachs. BloombergNEF warns that the sector requires $332 billion in new mine investment to prevent a supply shortage beginning in 2028. While the International Copper Study Group projects a refined copper surplus through 2027, long-term demand is forecast to rise 61% to nearly 46 million tonnes by 2050, fueled by a 244% surge in electrified transport.
Goldman Sachs Research notes that the deficit is structural rather than cyclical, driven by declining discoveries since the 1990s and falling ore grades, particularly in South America. The firm highlights that new mines now take a median of 16 years to move from discovery to production, with capital intensity increasing by approximately 50% between the pre-feasibility stage and production.
By 2050, the production gap could reach 20 million tonnes. Because output from existing mines is expected to decline starting in 2030, analysts argue that current price increases cannot deliver new metal for nearly two decades. Additionally, BloombergNEF identifies supply chain vulnerabilities due to China's dominance in refining capacity for seven of the ten transition materials studied.
