Omdia Forecasts 23% Decline in African Smartphone Shipments for 2026

Africa's smartphone market experienced its strongest recovery since 2021 in 2025, with shipments rising 13% to 84.4 million units. Growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching 23.1 million units. This surge was supported by stabilizing currencies, expanded device financing, and increased 4G and 5G adoption, particularly in South Africa and Egypt.

Despite these gains, Omdia forecasts a market correction in 2026 with shipments expected to decline by 23% year-on-year. This downturn is attributed to rising input costs, component inflation, and memory chip shortages caused by artificial intelligence companies hoarding chipsets. The market is particularly vulnerable because 81% of 2025 shipments were priced below $200.

Transsion remains the market leader with a share between 44% and 48%, though its concentration in ultra-low-price bands increases its exposure to pricing pressures. Other vendors are attempting to expand through localized strategies; Samsung saw 27% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, while Xiaomi and Oppo grew through localized product strategies and mid-range targeting. Additionally, Honor has increased its presence via partnerships with Vodacom and MTN, and Safaricom has begun producing its own branded smartphones.