US and China Compete for Critical Mineral Dominance

The United States and China are engaged in a competitive race to secure critical minerals essential for artificial intelligence, electrification, and weapons manufacturing. This rivalry has triggered a new commodity supercycle, with both superpowers aggressively funding foreign mining projects to ensure supply chain security.

Under Donald Trump, the U.S. government shifted toward a more aggressive investment strategy, repurposing the Development Finance Corporation and EXIM bank. In 2025, American government and firm investments in foreign mines reached $15.4 billion, while Chinese state-owned mining giants spent over $30 billion. The U.S. has focused on specific assets, such as rare earths in Brazil and tungsten in Kazakhstan, where the U.S.-backed firm Kaz Resources is investing $1 billion.

Resource-rich nations including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil, and Kazakhstan have emerged as primary beneficiaries. These countries are leveraging the competition to negotiate better terms, including increased state ownership and infrastructure projects. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a U.S. government-financed fund is seeking to partially acquire a copper mine operated by Glencore.

To support these developing nations in capturing mineral demand, the World Bank Group announced on October 16th that it would quintuple a dedicated fund to $20 billion. However, some analysts warn that heavy government interference in these markets may distort price signals and hinder long-term global exploration.