Tuomas Malinen Predicts US Recession by Early 2027

Tuomas Malinen, a professor at the University of Helsinki and CEO of GnS Economics, predicts the United States could enter a recession by the end of 2026 or early 2027. He argues that the US financial system is dangerously leveraged, specifically citing corporate debt, investor margin borrowing, and the heavy borrowing required to fund AI infrastructure.

Malinen characterizes this potential downturn as a "day of reckoning" and the third wave of a global financial crisis, following the 2022 UK bond market sell-off and the 2023 US regional banking collapse. He points to rising bond yields and an increase in corporate bankruptcies as primary warning signs of the coming instability.

This outlook contradicts the prevailing optimism on Wall Street, where many forecasters believe the AI boom will continue to drive economic growth. Malinen maintains that the current environment of excess liquidity makes a recession the likely trigger for an extended financial and economic calamity.