Zimbabwe Finance Minister Forecasts 5 Percent Growth by 2028
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube projects Zimbabwe's economic growth will recover to 5 percent by 2028 following an El Nino-induced slowdown.
Mthuli Ncube, the Finance Minister of Zimbabwe, forecasts that national economic growth will recover to 5 percent in 2028 and maintain an average above that level through 2030. These projections, detailed in a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies within an International Monetary Fund staff report, follow an expected slowdown to 3.5 percent in 2027 caused by El Nino.
Ncube projects that inflation will remain in single digits from 2028 to 2030, citing fiscal discipline and exchange rate stability as primary drivers. He identified higher gold prices and increased mining investment as potential catalysts for growth. He noted that medium-term prospects would be further strengthened by progress on arrears clearance and debt resolution, which would help unlock concessional financing and foreign direct investment.
Despite the positive outlook, the minister warned of several downside risks. These include the 2026/27 El Nino agricultural season, domestic pressures from social spending and arrears-clearance obligations, and the conflict in the Middle East, which may inflate the cost of fuel and fertilizer.
