S&P 500 Hits Four-Year Bull Market Anniversary
The S&P 500 marks four years of growth with a 118.4% increase, though rising Treasury yields create new risks for equity valuations.
The U.S. stock market reaches its four-year bull market anniversary this week, with the S&P 500 climbing 118.4% since October 12, 2022. While artificial intelligence and technology stocks have primarily driven the rally, surging 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields now threaten corporate borrowing costs and overall valuations.
Carson Investment Research suggests that historical data supports continued growth, noting that bull markets reaching their fourth year typically perform well in their fifth. Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick argues that the age of the bull market does not automatically necessitate its end.
Other analysts warn of a potential shift in capital. Jordan Rizzuto of GammaRoad Capital Partners suggests that high bond yields create direct competition for investor money, which may incentivize pension funds and retirement managers to move capital from stocks into fixed income. Meanwhile, Garrett Melson of Natixis Investment Managers Solutions observes that while market breadth has narrowed, such patterns have not historically triggered the expected corrections.
