Nigel Green Warns US 10-Year Treasury Yields Head Toward 6%
Nigel Green warns that US 10-year Treasury yields are heading toward 6% due to high national debt and inflation driven by AI and energy costs.
CEO of deVere Group Nigel Green warns that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is trending toward 6%, a level not reached since 2000. The 10-year yield has already climbed above 5.35%, while the 30-year yield has reached 5.73%, contributing to the highest mortgage rates since November 2023.
Green attributes the global bond sell-off to a U.S. national debt of approximately $40.1 trillion and a projected fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.9 trillion. He notes that the United States Department of the Treasury attempted to steady the market in August by doubling long-bond buybacks to $4 billion, but pressure remains high.
Additional upward pressure on yields stems from inflation linked to the AI boom and soaring energy costs. Markets currently price in an 85% probability of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve System. While U.S. stock indexes have recently hit record highs, Green cautions that 6% yields would create formidable competition for equities and trigger meaningful weakness across credit markets.
