UBS Predicts China Cannot Match ASML EUV Tech by 2036

UBS Group AG analysts predict that China will not develop a viable alternative to ASML Holding NV’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology within the next ten years. Analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies noted that China's current progress is comparable to the stage ASML was at in 2004, pointing to significant gaps in patent activity for laser subsystems and light sources.

While the Government of China has invested state capital to reach semiconductor self-sufficiency, progress remains hindered by export restrictions led by the Federal government of the United States. ASML Holding NV is currently the only provider of the EUV tools required for advanced semiconductors and is banned from selling these machines to China.

Despite the struggle with EUV technology, UBS expects China to achieve high-volume manufacturing capabilities for less advanced immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines within two to five years.