Prediction Markets Forecast Cautious August U.S. Job Growth

Traders on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are speculating on a rebound in U.S. hiring for August following a disappointing July report that showed job losses. This cautious optimism comes after two consecutive months in June and July where both economists and prediction market traders overestimated payroll numbers.

On Kalshi, speculators see 50-50 odds that the economy created more than 50,000 jobs, a slightly lower outlook than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 53,000. Polymarket traders assign a 48% likelihood to the creation of more than 50,000 jobs. Some Kalshi traders maintain a wide range of expectations, with roughly 25% odds that the U.S. lost jobs in August and a similar probability that it created more than 80,000.

The official August employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET this Friday.