OPEC+ Increases July Oil Production Amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Seven core members of OPEC+—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed on June 7, 2026, to increase oil production targets by 188,000 barrels per day for July. This represents the fourth consecutive monthly increase as the group gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts established in 2023. Saudi Arabia and Russia will lead the hike with 62,000 barrels per day each, while Iraq will add 26,000 barrels per day.

Despite these quota increases, the move is largely symbolic. Actual global production collapsed from approximately 42.8 million barrels per day in February to 33.2 million in April. This supply crisis stems from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026. The closure has stranded roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies, preventing members like Saudi Arabia from fulfilling customer orders despite attempts to use bypass pipelines.

Internal cartel stability has also deteriorated, evidenced by the United Arab Emirates exiting OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1 to maximize its own revenues and avoid production quotas. While a meeting of all 21 OPEC+ members left broader policies unchanged through 2026, the seven core members will meet again on July 5 to review market conditions. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices rose to $97.6 per barrel following further Iranian attacks on Israel.