Ken Paxton Leads Texas Senate Race in Kalshi Prediction Market

Ken Paxton now holds a 53% chance of winning the 2026 Texas Senate race according to data from the Kalshi prediction market. This represents a 6% increase in his odds, placing him ahead of opponent James Talarico, who currently holds a 47% chance of victory.

The shift in market sentiment follows discussions regarding campaign funding and the reliability of general election polling. Some observers attribute the increase in Paxton's odds to new financial support for his campaign.