Deutsche Bank Warns of Historic Global Copper Scarcity

Deutsche Bank warns that global copper inventories have fallen to unprecedented lows, which could trigger a 50% price rally to $22,050 a ton by the second quarter of 2027. The financial institution attributes this scarcity to a de-globalization trend marked by decades of supply underinvestment and aggressive stockpiling by the United States and China.

Daniel Ghali, head of metals research at Deutsche Bank, estimates that the U.S. and China will encumber 71% of global inventories by the end of 2026. China currently holds approximately 2.05 million tons, while the U.S. has tied up 1.3 million tons due to tariff-driven demand.

Ghali forecasts that freely available inventories could approach zero by the end of 2028, creating the most acute copper scarcity on record. He predicts this will result in a bidding war for remaining accessible metal until demand destruction occurs.