Deutsche Bank Forecasts Gold to Reach $4,600 per Ounce

Michael Hsueh, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, maintains a year-end price target of $4,600 per ounce for gold. As of August 3, 2026, gold was trading at $4,117.80. Hsueh describes the asset as being in an "explosive price behavior" phase that originated in August 2024.

To determine this target, Hsueh utilizes a fair value model incorporating exchange rates, 10-year yields, and the S&P 500. While the model suggests a price of $4,700, he has set the target slightly lower at $4,600 to account for a downward adjustment caused by slowing central bank purchases.

His analysis also employs the Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, an econometric tool used to identify speculative bubbles. This approach aligns with earlier observations from August 2024, when the Bank for International Settlements described bubble conditions within the gold market.