Kotak Securities Forecasts Rupee Stability Amid Crude Oil Price Surges

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities Ltd, projects that the Indian Rupee is unlikely to breach 100 against the US Dollar, even if crude oil prices reach 105 USD per barrel. Chouhan expects the currency to depreciate to a maximum of 97 if crude prices sustain at 85 USD, while a jump to 105 USD would result in a worst-case level of 98.

He warns that sustained oil prices above 85 USD would impact the balance of payments and the current account deficit, potentially driving retail inflation to between 4.8% and 5.2%. In a more severe scenario where crude prices exceed 105 USD, Chouhan predicts real GDP growth could slow to between 5.5% and 5.8%.

Regarding the Indian stock market, Chouhan anticipates near-term consolidation with a support zone around 23,800. He notes that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are currently capping market rallies.