India Merchandise Exports Projected to Hit $131.2 Billion

India's total merchandise exports are projected to reach $131.2 billion in the July-September quarter of fiscal 2027, a 17.6 percent year-on-year increase. The India Exim Bank attributes this growth to domestic manufacturing expansion, exchange rate movements, and geographical diversification resulting from recent trade agreements. Non-oil exports are expected to rise 20.3 percent to $113.8 billion, while non-oil, non-gems, and non-jewellery exports are projected to grow 20.5 percent to $105.8 billion.

Recent data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry supports this upward trend, showing that total exports of merchandise and services grew 13.31 percent to $80.14 billion in July 2026. Merchandise exports for the month reached $44.24 billion, fueled by a 67.64 percent surge in petroleum products and a 57.4 percent increase in electronic goods. Cumulative exports for the April-July period reached $316.42 billion, marking a 13.16 percent growth over the previous year.

Despite the growth, the India Exim Bank warned of downside risks stemming from international commodity market volatility and geopolitical conflicts. Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada informed the Lok Sabha that the government is monitoring trade performance, noting that the June 2026 merchandise trade deficit of $30.4 billion remained consistent with the 12-month average.