JPMorgan Forecasts 10% Annual Return for Bitcoin

JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time, forecasting a base-case compound annual return of 10% over the next decade. This projection exceeds the bank's forecasts for gold at 5.5% and U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%.

While the return forecast is optimistic, the firm classifies Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. The bank noted that high volatility and unstable correlations prevent the cryptocurrency from serving as a strategic portfolio diversifier.

Amid these financial projections, Tron founder Justin Sun warned that advancements in AI and standard computing could compromise Bitcoin's cryptographic security within 12 to 18 months. Sun criticized institutions such as BlackRock for holding the asset without fully accounting for these risks. In response to such threats, Bitcoin developers are proposing quantum-resistant addresses through BIP 360, and investors have continued to increase funding into Bitcoin ETFs.