Stephen Moore Uses ATM History to Predict AI Job Impact

Former senior economic adviser Stephen Moore argues that the historical introduction of automated teller machines (ATMs) provides a blueprint for the current disruption caused by artificial intelligence. Moore contends that while AI will make parts of many jobs obsolete, the American worker's competitive advantage depends on adopting new technology faster than global competitors rather than seeking protection from it.

Drawing on research by Boston University economist James Bessen, Moore notes that ATMs initially reduced the number of tellers per urban branch from 20 to 13. However, the resulting lower staffing costs enabled banks to open more branches in previously non-viable locations, leading to a 43 percent increase in total urban branches. This shift transitioned bank tellers from repetitive cash-handling roles into higher-paid relationship banking and customer service positions.

Moore suggests that AI will cause similar massive disruptions, mirroring previous technological leaps by companies like Apple and Google. He points to the broader systemic changes triggered by ATMs, such as the expansion of interstate banking and the passage of the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act of 2000, as evidence of how technology reshapes industry and law.