Global Food Systems Face Super El Nino and Hormuz Crisis

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reports that the global food system is better equipped to handle a current super El Nino event than in previous decades. This resilience stems from near-record inventories, the rise of major exporters like Brazil and Russia, and technological advancements including AI-powered farming tools, improved irrigation, and drought-tolerant seeds.

While dryness has already disrupted planting in India, Australia, and Southeast Asia, the most severe impacts are expected in late 2026 and early 2027. Strategic stockpiles provide a buffer, with India holding rice reserves exceeding a year of global exports and China maintaining nearly half of the world's wheat stocks.

These gains are currently tempered by geopolitical instability. A war involving Iran has resulted in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted the supply of diesel and fertilizer essential for global agricultural production. Maximo Torero, the agency's chief economist, warned that future food security will depend on how conditions evolve during the second half of 2026 in light of these supply chain disruptions.