Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Geopolitical Risks

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for December 2026 and the full year 2027, citing high supply disruption risks driven by instability in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The investment bank now includes a 1 million barrels per day global supply disruption allowance in its base case for 2027.

For December 2026, the bank increased its Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel from $90, and its West Texas Intermediate forecast to $94 per barrel. Average forecasts for 2027 were also lifted to $88 per barrel for Brent and $78 per barrel for WTI, up from previous estimates of $80 and $73.

Strategist Daan Struyven noted that markets are pricing in a higher risk premium because a lasting diplomatic breakthrough appears unlikely. The bank indicated that broader geopolitical fragmentation and the unpredictability of disruption timing and location are primary drivers of these updated projections.