S&P 500 Historically Rallies After U.S. Midterm Elections

The United States held midterm elections on November 4, 2026. Historical data from 1980 through 2024 suggests the S&P 500 Index typically rallies after such cycles, regardless of which political party secures control of the White House or Congress.

On average, the index has returned 1% in the week following midterms, 1.5% over the subsequent month, and 13.7% over the following year. Markets have traded in positive territory 12 months after midterms in 100% of recorded cases.

Performance is generally stronger under divided government, with an average rise of 15% compared to 11.5% under single-party control. This trend is attributed to the removal of political uncertainty, which allows investors to refocus on economic data, earnings, and interest rate fundamentals.