Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in First National Poll

A new national poll by PoderData and Aya shows challenger Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for the first time in a hypothetical runoff scenario. Bolsonaro holds 45% of the vote compared to 44% for Lula, a one-point gap that falls within the 1.8 percentage point margin of error.

While the result is a statistical tie, it marks a symbolic shift as Bolsonaro had trailed in all previous PoderData surveys conducted this year. The data highlights a polarized electorate, with Bolsonaro leading in São Paulo, Mato Grosso, and Espírito Santo, while Lula maintains dominance in northeastern states such as Bahia and Pernambuco.

In a separate gubernatorial race, an Atlas poll projects that Tarcísio de Freitas could win re-election as Governor of São Paulo outright in the first round with 51.1% of the vote. Brazil's first-round presidential election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25.