Goldman Sachs Forecasts Global Oil Supply Surplus for 2027

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the global oil market will face a supply glut in 2027, with a predicted surplus of approximately 3 million barrels per day. The investment bank attributes this shift to the diminishing impact of the Iran-Iraq conflict and the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

This bearish outlook follows a mid-June memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to negotiate a peace deal. While governments are working to rebuild strategic petroleum reserves that hit multi-decade lows during the Middle East crisis, analysts state these efforts will not offset the oversupply.

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, estimates that global reserve rebuilding will account for only 1 million barrels per day, leaving a remaining surplus of 2 million barrels per day. Morgan Stanley has similarly lowered its oil price forecasts for the next 18 months in anticipation of the supply glut.