High Gas Prices Boost Democratic Senate Prospects
Prediction market traders expect gas prices to remain above $4 per gallon through the November 3 midterms, increasing the likelihood of Democrats flipping the U.S. Senate.
Speculators on the prediction market platform Kalshi expect U.S. gas prices to remain elevated leading into the November 3 midterm elections. Traders assign an 87% probability that the AAA national average will stay above $4 per gallon on Election Day, with a 42% chance they remain above $4.25. The current national average is $4.36 per gallon.
These price levels follow a peak of $4.56 in May, triggered by the start of the U.S.-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel prices also reached a high of $6.53 in September, creating significant economic pressure in Alaska and agriculture-heavy states such as Iowa and Kansas.
Market data suggests these affordability pressures are shifting the political landscape. Traders currently give the Democratic Party a 63% chance of flipping the U.S. Senate from Republican control.
