Social Security 2027 COLA Projections Range From 3.2% to 3.6%

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 14, with the increase taking effect in January. Current projections range from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent, following a Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 3.4 percent between July 2025 and July 2026.

Forecasting organizations have revised their estimates as new data emerged. The Senior Citizens League initially projected a 3.8 percent increase but later lowered its estimate to 3.6 percent. Similarly, AARP reduced its projection from 3.6 percent to 3.5 percent. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget provided the lowest estimate at 3.2 percent. A 3.6 percent adjustment would increase the average monthly benefit by approximately $69.75.

While higher adjustments provide immediate support to retirees, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that such increases accelerate the insolvency of the Social Security retirement fund, which is projected to be depleted by the end of 2032. Without legislative reform, the organization cautioned that beneficiaries could face automatic benefit cuts of 22 percent once the fund is exhausted.