Global Crude Oil Demand May Have Peaked in 2025
FGE NexantECA reports that global crude oil demand likely peaked in 2025 as biofuels, natural gas liquids, and electric vehicles replace traditional oil.
Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA reports that global demand for crude oil may have peaked in 2025. The firm attributes this decline to the increasing substitution of crude with biofuels and hydrocarbons derived from natural gas, such as ethane. In the United States, all oil demand growth since 2010 has stemmed from ethane.
Road transport, which accounts for roughly 45% of global oil demand, is experiencing an erosion of gasoline and diesel consumption due to the rise of electric vehicles. FGE NexantECA notes that biofuels and natural gas liquids grew faster than crude between 2019 and 2025.
The firm also highlights that the recent Hormuz crisis mirrors the timing of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, which caused permanent demand destruction in power generation. This shift away from crude oil creates ongoing challenges for refiners, upstream investment, and the policy decisions of OPEC.
