Kathy Hochul Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Bruce Blakeman

Governor Kathy Hochul holds a consistent double-digit lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in statewide polling ahead of the November 3, 2026, election. A Marist poll of 1,361 registered voters shows Hochul with 53% support compared to Blakeman's 42%, while an Emerson College and PIX11 News survey places her at 52% to 40%. The RealClearPolling average as of October 8 estimates her lead at 13 points.

Regional data shows a stark divide, with Hochul commanding 69% of the vote in New York City, while Blakeman leads Upstate New York with 51% and holds a narrow advantage among independent voters. Blakeman has dismissed the Marist findings, characterizing the university as woke. Conversely, internal surveys commissioned by Blakeman and the Strong and Safe Super PAC suggest a tighter race, placing Hochul ahead by approximately four points.

Campaign tensions have escalated over public safety records. New York State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs accused Blakeman of defunding the Nassau County Police Department, citing staffing vacancies and a proposed 25% cut to equipment spending in the 2027 budget. Jacobs further claimed violent crime in Nassau County hit a 10-year high under Blakeman's leadership. Blakeman countered that the county continues to hire new officers to operate at full strength.

Blakeman previously received an endorsement from Donald Trump, who described him as MAGA all the way. Voters currently identify the economy, housing affordability, and threats to democracy as the state's primary issues.