Hong Kong Raises 2026 GDP Forecast After Strong First Half

The Government of Hong Kong revised its full-year 2026 real GDP growth forecast upward to between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent, increasing it from a previous estimate of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. This adjustment follows the release of second-quarter data showing that the economy grew by 4.3 percent year-over-year.

Real GDP for the first half of 2026 grew by 5.1 percent, the strongest half-yearly performance in nearly five years. This growth was driven by a 5.9 percent increase in the first quarter and the subsequent 4.3 percent expansion in the second quarter. A primary driver of this growth was a 28.9 percent year-on-year surge in real goods exports during the second quarter, fueled by strong global demand for artificial intelligence-related electronic products. Service exports also rose by 3.4 percent.

Despite the overall growth, the second quarter showed a moderation in certain sectors. Private consumption slowed to 2.8 percent, and gross fixed capital formation eased to 4.4 percent due to a slowdown in public sector expenditure on building and construction. However, government economist Irina Fan predicted solid growth for the second half of 2026 based on the continued demand for AI electronics.