CSIS Report Estimates Over 2 Million Ukraine War Casualties

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report estimating that more than 2 million Russian and Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded since the 2022 full-scale invasion. The study calculates that Russia has suffered approximately 1.4 million casualties, including 400,000 to 450,000 deaths, while Ukraine has experienced between 525,000 and 625,000 casualties, including up to 150,000 deaths.

Analysis by authors Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe indicates that the casualty rate rose to nearly 8:1 in favor of Ukraine during the first half of 2026. This spike is attributed to Ukraine's sophisticated drone programs and a defense-in-depth strategy, contrasted with Russian corruption, poor training, and a failing attrition strategy. The report notes that Russian monthly losses now exceed recruitment rates and that fatalities are disproportionately concentrated among ethnic minorities and poorer regions.

The CSIS describes the conflict as a grinding war of attrition where Russian fatalities exceed all U.S. war fatalities since World War II by more than four times. Parallelly, the Institute for the Study of War observes that Russia's territorial gains have slowed significantly in 2026 compared to the previous year, coinciding with increased bombardment of Kyiv.