Analysts Raise 2026 Oil Price Forecasts Amid Hormuz Disruptions
Economists increased 2026 oil price forecasts as prolonged export disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz offset concerns over global demand growth.
Economists and analysts have raised 2026 oil price forecasts, predicting benchmark Brent crude will average $89.05 a barrel and U.S. crude $83.90 a barrel. The price increase stems from prolonged disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which are currently offsetting concerns regarding global demand growth.
Market assessments of the recovery vary. Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management estimates Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day, while HSBC warns that the strait remains "structurally impaired" with a slow recovery of liquid flows. Further uncertainty exists regarding Chinese crude stockpiles, which have buffered the conflict's impact but are expected to decline through the winter.
Analysts anticipate supply risks will remain the primary price driver through 2026. A return to market surplus is expected in 2027 as shipping conditions improve and non-OPEC supply expands. The Economist Intelligence Unit noted that slower global economic growth continues to act as a restraint on prices.
