National Retail Federation Forecasts $1.013 Trillion in Holiday Sales

The National Retail Federation forecasts that U.S. holiday sales growth will accelerate to 4.2% this year, with total sales for November and December projected to reach $1.013 trillion. This marks an increase over the previous year, when growth was 3.1% and sales totaled $972 billion. The projection is based on economic modeling of employment, wages, and consumer spending, though it excludes restaurant sales, automobiles, and gasoline.

Retailers including American Eagle, Kohl’s, and Walmart have reported that inflation and rising household costs are creating spending pressures. Despite these headwinds, the federation expects consumers to prioritize holiday shopping. A separate survey of 4,000 consumers by Deloitte suggests average household holiday spending may rise 4% to $1,654, with Gen Z and millennial shoppers driving the increase.

Deloitte data indicates a shift in how consumers allocate their budgets. While retail spending is expected to rise 10% to $988, spending on holiday activities is projected to decrease 4% to $666.