Saudi Arabia Projects 12.8% GDP Growth for 2027

The Government of Saudi Arabia projects a strong economic recovery in 2027 with real GDP growth of 12.8%, following a difficult 2026. The Ministry of Finance expects real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2026, driven by a 21.8% drop in oil activity resulting from regional geopolitical developments, including war with Iran and attacks by Iran-backed Houthis. This contraction is partially offset by a 3.2% growth in non-oil activities, which contributed a record 57.3% to GDP during the first half of 2026.

For the 2027 fiscal year, the government projects spending of approximately 1.39 trillion riyals ($370.2 billion) against revenues of 1.20 trillion riyals ($319.6 billion). This creates a projected budget deficit of roughly 191 billion riyals ($50.87 billion), or 3.6% of gross domestic product. To fund this deficit and support strategic Vision 2030 projects, the kingdom will employ a medium-term debt strategy involving domestic and international bonds, sukuk, loans, and alternative infrastructure financing.

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan stated that these fiscal policies aim to broaden the economic base and increase non-oil revenue stability. He noted that the estimates account for a global environment of uncertainty and geopolitical developments.