US Midterm Prediction Market Trading Fails to Grow
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are struggling to maintain trading momentum for the 2026 US midterm elections compared to the 2024 presidential cycle.
Kalshi Inc. and its primary competitor Polymarket have seen a stagnation or decline in trading activity leading up to the 2026 US midterm elections. A Bloomberg News analysis of trading data indicates that turnover on Kalshi, the largest prediction market, remained roughly the same during the final week before Election Day as it was during the comparable period in 2024.
Polymarket experienced a more pronounced downturn, with trading volume shrinking significantly across both its international and newer US exchanges. These trends suggest that prediction platforms are struggling to expand their user base and trading volume beyond a few high-profile categories, despite continued public attention to the platforms.
