IEA Forecasts 750 Billion Dollar Need for Critical Minerals

The International Energy Agency projects a strong surge in global demand for critical minerals through 2040 to support the growth of electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and electricity networks. Under the Stated Policies Scenario, meeting this demand will require more than 750 billion dollars in mining and refining investments. Copper and nickel represent the largest funding needs, requiring 310 billion dollars and 280 billion dollars, respectively.

While mining activities are becoming more geographically diverse, the agency warns that refining remains highly concentrated. The Government of China controls over 90% of battery-grade graphite production and maintains significant shares of lithium, cobalt, and copper refining.

Supply gaps for copper and lithium are expected to persist through 2035. Additionally, cobalt faces shortages driven by export quotas introduced by the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To build resilient supply chains, the agency suggests increasing recycling rates and implementing policies to reduce investment risks.